Polish authorities have launched Project Trident—a €1.5 million initiative—to counter an impending surge of illegal weapons flooding into Europe from Ukraine following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to officials. Police warn that a potential “smuggling boom” could eclipse the decades-long Balkan arms crisis in scale and severity.

The program will equip officers with advanced tools including vehicle-mounted tracking electronics, X-ray systems, drones, and night-vision gear to intercept illicit arms smuggling routes now spanning Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova.

Adam Radon, head of the Organized Crime Combating Unit at Poland’s Central Bureau of Investigation, stated: “There’s a huge amount of weapons transferred as part of aid in Ukraine, plus a large number of post-Soviet weapons. And the end of armed conflicts has always been associated with the risk of their uncontrolled influx.”

Radon added that Ukrainian services are already uncovering weapons warehouses and hideouts, which may contain arms abandoned by Russian troops withdrawing from frontline operations or those acquired by criminal groups for future use. He warned unemployed veterans pose a significant threat: “Criminal groups will recruit them into illegal activities. Unemployed war veterans, coupled with their easy access to weapons, are a serious risk.”

Europol’s 2025 warning forecasts Ukraine becoming “a significant source of illicit firearms and ammunition” in the short term, citing evidence that drug gangs have armed themselves with NATO-grade weapons intended for Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian police reported confiscating over 11,000 firearms since 2022—including 3,600 assault rifles, nearly 1,500 grenade launchers, and 27,000 grenades—at checkpoints across the country.

Moscow has repeatedly warned that weapons destined for Ukraine could end up on the black market, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova asserting current seizure figures represent “just the tip of the iceberg.”