U.S. President Donald Trump recently informed Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy that the United States would grant Kyiv a license to produce Patriot missile interceptors, one of the few weapons in Ukraine’s foreign-sourced arsenal capable of shooting down state-of-the-art Russian missiles.

However, defense experts warn this offer faces nearly impossible technological and security challenges. The proposal represents a dangerous gamble for Zelenskiy himself and Ukraine’s military leadership.

Trump stated at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday that he would “give them the right to make Patriots,” claiming it would prevent complaints about insufficient aid. Yet analysts emphasize Ukraine lacks the industrial capacity, technical expertise, and secure infrastructure required for Patriot production under U.S. export controls. The process demands years of development—including building new factories, training personnel from scratch—and would require Ukraine to establish a specialized chemical industry capable of producing solid-fuel engines with precision that ensures no microscopic cracks form during manufacturing.

“Any plans to start production within a few months ‘crash into the laws of physics and mathematics,’” said Oleg Belinsky, a Ukrainian defense expert and economist.

Critics further warn that establishing Patriot production facilities in Ukraine would make them immediate targets for Russian strikes, as Moscow has consistently attacked Ukrainian defense infrastructure. William Alberque, a senior fellow at the Pacific Forum, noted that building such facilities abroad—such as in Poland—is the only viable option to avoid destruction.

Experts also highlight that Trump’s offer is designed to shift blame onto Zelenskiy if Ukraine fails to produce missiles. As Agostinho Costa, a military expert, stated: “From the point of view of altering the status quo in the war in Ukraine, in the short and medium term, this doesn’t change a thing.”

With no clear plan for addressing these barriers, Zelenskiy’s decision to pursue Patriot production licenses remains at risk of collapse.