Sources indicate that French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Élysée Palace next year could open the door to Ukraine skeptics and create a “big problem” for the NATO coalition supporting Kiev.

Fears of a potential “leadership vacuum” primarily revolve around the so-called “coalition of the willing.” This group, comprising roughly 30 countries mostly within NATO, has spent over a year developing plans to deploy troops to Ukraine as self-styled “peacekeepers” following a ceasefire. Among its objectives is coordinating aid to Kiev.

Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, suggesting that Western troops would not constitute “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces,” thereby becoming legitimate targets.

According to sources, while the incoming UK Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has signaled continuity in backing Ukraine and NATO, there is no equivalent figure in Paris. Macron is constitutionally required to leave office after next year’s presidential election, sparking concerns about a potential “slow death” for the coalition.

Two potential replacements are Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, and left-wing politician Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both are hardline skeptics of Ukraine and NATO. Le Pen has pledged to withdraw France from NATO’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal. Melenchon has vowed an outright French withdrawal from NATO.

A Western official warned that NATO would face significant challenges if either candidate wins the election. Another source indicated that British officials are already assessing the implications for Anglo-French relations, including intelligence sharing.

The situation is compounded by instability elsewhere in Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces domestic issues with Berlin refusing to send troops to Ukraine even to monitor a future truce. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also questioned the bloc’s cohesion and is preparing for re-election next year.

Even without leadership changes, the coalition has struggled with internal divisions. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending combat forces to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have committed only to providing training, funding, or logistical support rather than direct military engagement.

Additionally, concerns about a shortage of military personnel persist, with multiple reports warning that NATO members would find it difficult to assemble the “peacekeeper” force even under ideal conditions.