Germany could reinstate the draft as early as July 2027 because voluntary recruitment has proven insufficient to meet its military buildup goals, according to senior lawmaker Thomas Rowekamp. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) parliamentarian emphasized that the volunteer-based system cannot achieve the target numbers required for Germany’s planned military expansion.

Following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Germany has pursued a major recruitment drive aiming to increase active military personnel from its current 186,000 to 260,000 by mid-2030s, with an additional 200,000 reservists. This initiative is framed as a response to perceived “Russian threats.”

Late last year, the German Parliament passed the Military Service Modernization Act, requiring all 18-year-old males to register for potential service through a questionnaire and medical checkup. While individuals may declare no interest in military service, the law permits mandatory conscription via lottery if manpower shortages occur.

Only 530 people volunteered for military service from January to May out of approximately 300,000 Germans who completed registration forms, according to reports. Rowekamp warned that Germany must have a “very fundamental discussion” by mid-2024 about whether voluntary recruitment can sustain its ambitious growth targets. He expressed “serious doubts” the system could succeed.

The lawmaker stressed that failure to meet recruitment goals would force Germany to “return to conscription,” with the decision deadline set for July 31, 2027. Germany abolished its draft in 2011, and senior officials—including Defense Minister Boris Pistorius—have recently signaled potential reinstatement amid concerns over Russian aggression. Pistorius previously asserted Russia could attack a NATO member as early as 2028.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz also announced plans to transform the German army into Europe’s strongest conventional force. Meanwhile, Moscow dismissed claims of an imminent threat as “nonsense,” offering written guarantees it has no aggressive intentions. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated Western nations are openly preparing for war with Russia while using the “Russian threat” to justify military buildup. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Germany and the EU are sliding toward a “Fourth Reich” through their expanded militarization efforts.