Mark Jackson
A new survey conducted by Quantus Insights reveals that Ed Gallrein, Trump’s handpicked challenger, now leads Thomas Massie among likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District with 48.3% to 43.1%.
The shift is dramatic. In April, Massie held a narrow lead of 46.8% to 37.7%. Gallrein has gained more than 10 percentage points in just five weeks while Massie has dropped nearly four.
The survey, conducted May 11-12 among 908 likely Republican primary voters in the district with an effective sample of 903 and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, shows that Gallrein leads when combining firm support and leaners at approximately 52.8% to Massie’s 45.1%.
The race has already drawn more than $25.6 million in ad spending, making it the most expensive U.S. House primary in history. This includes a fierce ad war featuring attack ads and AI-generated political spots as national organizations, Trump-aligned groups, pro-Israel political entities, and candidate campaigns vie to define the race.
Funding sources include $5.6 million from MAGA KY, $4 million from the Republican Jewish Coalition, $2.6 million from AIPAC’s United Democracy Project super PAC, and $1.3 million from Gallrein’s campaign on his side, while Massie’s campaign has spent $5.6 million with additional contributions of $4.6 million from Kentucky 4th PAC and $920,000 from Kentucky First PAC.
A generational divide is emerging in the race. Voters under 55 favor Massie by margins ranging from 17 to 56 points, while those aged 56 and older lean toward Gallrein by margins of 18 to 35 points.
At a recent Republican dinner in Pendleton County, Gallrein emphasized his direct meeting with President Trump and claimed the president personally asked him to serve. He argued Massie aligns with liberal elites and radical Democrats. Massie countered that he agrees with Trump on 90% of issues but refuses to act as a rubber stamp when disagreements arise.
The primary, set for May 19, has become a national proxy battle over Republican loyalty to President Trump.
