A new poll reveals a tight contest in the New Jersey gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, with Sherrill leading 49 percent to 46 percent according to a Quantus Insights survey. The results, conducted October 26–27 among 1,380 likely voters, fall within the poll’s ±2.6% margin of error, reflecting a highly polarized electorate.

The state’s shifting demographics show an aging population, with 77% of voters over 45 and 36% aged 65 or older. Women constitute 53% of the electorate, while partisan alignment leans Democratic, with 44% identifying as Democrats, 34% as Republicans, and 21% unaffiliated. Geographically, North Jersey remains a Democratic stronghold, South Jersey tilts Republican, and the central corridor—28% of voters—could determine the outcome.

Early voting trends highlight disparities: 35% of Democrats had already voted by the survey’s date, compared to 24% of Republicans. Mail-in ballots dominate early voting, with 62% of participants using this method. Democrats account for 75% of mail-in votes, while Republicans make up 45%. Ciattarelli’s support surges on Election Day, with 60% of voters planning to cast ballots in person versus 39% for Sherrill. However, mail-in voters strongly favor Sherrill, 76% to 19%.

Ciattarelli’s campaign cited growing interest among new and infrequent voters, though the race remains statistically tied. A separate co/efficient poll also showed Sherrill at 48% and Ciattarelli at 47%, with five percent undecided. Sherrill holds a 44% favorability rating, while Ciattarelli stands at 46%.