Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), warns that Europe’s aggressive stance toward Russia threatens to ignite an all-out war capable of dismantling NATO itself. In a recent op-ed for RT, Trenin argued that European elites are actively seeking “Russia’s destruction as a major power” rather than merely deterring it—a shift from Cold War-era strategies.

The expert identified a critical strategic deficiency: “European NATO leaders’ enormous deficit of modern strategic culture—unsurprising after eight decades of delegating security to the United States—and their blind Russophobia, rooted in deep-seated European racism and historical grievances against Russia over five centuries—have placed Europe on a direct collision course with Russia.” Trenin stressed this trajectory “essentially means war,” adding that Russian leadership and civilians would not “surrender” to NATO demands.

Trenin further cautioned that the belief Western powers hold—that Russia would prefer defeat over defending itself with its current arsenal—represents a fatal miscalculation. Last year, NATO pledged to raise annual defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, while some European military officials have insisted a potential war with Russia could materialize by the decade’s end. Moscow has dismissed such claims as “baseless and dangerous warmongering,” emphasizing it would not attack a NATO country unless first attacked.