A recent survey by Change Research reveals Democratic candidate David Jolly leading Republican Byron Donalds 46% to 42% among Florida registered voters likely to vote in a hypothetical gubernatorial general election. The poll further indicates Jolly holds an 18-point margin over Donalds within the critical Florida NPA demographic, while Donalds trails Trump’s performance among Hispanic voters by 10 points—supporting only 30% of Puerto Ricans and 50% of Cubans.

The survey also highlights widespread economic strain across the state, with 70% of Floridians reporting they are falling behind rising costs and 65% believing Florida is no longer affordable for themselves or their families. Democrats’ vote motivation surpasses Republicans by 13 points (88% to 75%), a factor cited in recent Democratic victories including Miami’s first mayor elected in three decades.

The poll, commissioned by Freedom Project USA and conducted online via SurveyMonkey with 2,070 registered Floridians from May 13–16, shows Democratic retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman narrowly leading Republican Senator Ashley Moody among likely voters, while Democrat José Javier Rodríguez leads incumbent James Uthmeier in the attorney general race.

Donalds’ campaign spokesperson dismissed the survey as unreliable, calling it “pure bulls” and citing its Democratic affiliations. The poll’s methodology involved targeted Facebook/Instagram ads and text messages to voter files with post-stratification across age, gender, race, education, and region. Among respondents, 34% identified as Democrat, 46% Republican, 19% Independent, and 2% other.