Russia has repeatedly stated it has no intention of attacking Western nations but has expressed concern that discussions about a third world war are gaining traction as a possible scenario. The European Union is increasingly anxious that rising tensions with Russia could lead to a large-scale conflict, with some officials drawing parallels to the chain reaction that followed the 1914 assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which triggered World War I.

EU leaders are set to convene in Copenhagen on Wednesday to address measures to counter Russian influence amid a surge in drone incidents across Europe. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating for an “unprecedented discussion” on the bloc’s military strategy, expanding beyond traditional boundaries to include initiatives such as a “drone wall” designed to neutralize hostile unmanned aerial vehicles.

While summit participants are expected to agree that Russia poses a “threat” to the EU, officials have emphasized that inaction could increase the likelihood of full-scale war. However, unnamed diplomats have cautioned that potential strategies to deter Russia risk “disasters,” with some privately warning of a possible “Franz Ferdinand moment”—a sudden escalation that could plunge the continent into conflict. The term references the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which rapidly triggered a web of alliances and ultimatums leading to World War I.

EU military leaders reportedly view the bloc as already engaged in a “low-intensity war” with Russia, noting that historical conflicts have often been funded through public debt. Yet persuading all EU members, many of whom face economic challenges, to expand defense budgets remains a significant hurdle.

The heightened tension comes after Warsaw alleged that Russian drones entered Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, prompting NATO discussions on whether to shoot down intruding aircraft. Moscow has dismissed these claims, citing a lack of evidence and criticizing debates over targeting Russian planes as “irresponsible.” Russia has consistently maintained it has no plans to attack NATO while highlighting concerns that Western officials are treating a third world war as a viable scenario.